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Mound Visit: Building the best defensive version of Davis

Originally posted on DK Pittsburgh Sports
By Alex Stumpf | Last updated 12/11/23

The Pirates went into the offseason laying out that Henry Davis' focus this winter was going to be as a catcher. Derek Shelton and Ben Cherington doubled down on that last week in Nashville during the winter meetings.

Davis' lack of time at catcher in the majors last year was puzzling. He had a lengthier stay with Class AA Altoona rather than Triple-A Indianapolis because there were more catching opportunities at the lower level, but he only caught two innings in the majors. (Or, to look at it a more sadistic way, one more than Josh VanMeter caught the year before.)

The team rushed him to the majors to get his bat in the lineup but didn't want to lose Austin Hedges' elite pitch framing, so they stashed him right field instead. Hedges would eventually relinquish the starter's job in July, but to Endy Rodríguez.

A late season injury pulled the plug on plans for Davis to get some legitimate time catching rather than a couple garbage time frames. Had that not happened, perhaps this offseason push of him catching wouldn't be so newsworthy.

"All intentions were we were going to go into the off-season or even into September and have him catch more, and then the injury kind of derailed that," Shelton said. "Then we started to focus on let's work on it this offseason and into next year."

It's fair to wonder if Davis will ever be a major-league catcher. From a skill standpoint, I've heard plenty of doubts from scouts and analysts. I also had a really encouraging conversation with Jordan Comadena, the coach who helped make Jacob Stallings into a Gold Glover, about Davis' future. I also got to pick Davis' brain about catching last year, and he's got the right mindset and approaches for the position. Give him a full offseason with a playbook of what he should work on and Davis could take a big step forward this winter.

Honestly, the main obstacle for him being an everyday catcher is the other former top 100 prospect they have behind the plate. Rodríguez was the everyday catcher from his July promotion through the end of the season and played relatively well behind the plate. There are some areas of his game that need improved, but three defensive runs saved over 410 innings is a solid first showing in the majors.

With that said, two young stud catchers are better than one.

"Henry's going to come into spring training as a catcher," Cherington said. "Still believe the best outcome for him, for the Pirates, is that that's what he's doing going forward. If at any point it makes sense for him and the Pirates to do something else, we trust he'll be able to do it. We'll get to that if and when we get to that, but we believe he can catch. That's where the focus is going to be. We owe it to him and to us to find that out, and then whatever we do in the outfield will be separate to that."

It's hard to exactly see how a division of labor behind the plate would necessarily work out. There will be a spring training competition first, but let's speculate for a moment that Davis wows and he and Rodríguez get a roughly 50-50 split to start the season. That would require some lineup juggling. Davis' second position is right field. Rodríguez's is first base. Connor Joe could potentially fill the vacant position as needed, or he could play first with a lefty on the mound while a left-handed outfielder (Joshua Palacios, Canaan Smith-Njigba) plays right field when a right-hander starts. Now you've got a four-person platoon for three positions.

So let's assume the competition leads to Rodríguez and Davis splitting time behind the plate, meaning Davis will be a catcher and right fielder for 2024. How can he improve at those positions?

Davis didn't get a ton of reps in right field in the minors and basically had to learn the position on the fly in the majors. The results weren't pretty, being worth -9 DRS over 417 1/3 innings. That was the fifth-worst DRS among all right fielders last year, and everyone worse than him had significantly more innings at the position.

It raises the question why not try Davis at first, a position where the Pirates actually have a more pressing need. It's because he has an elite fielding tool: His arm. His 95 mph average on competitive throws last year ranked 10th among non-catchers and would obviously translate behind the plate. Davis also showed potentially elite pop times in college, this one registering at around 1.8 seconds, better than any major-league catcher's average last year:

Here's another angle of Henry Davis' absurd throw from his knees earlier today. Checked with the crew, the pop time on this throw has been anywhere from 1.79-1.82. Just like the NC State throw, there are just no adjectives to describe how good that is. pic.twitter.com/FcUd1E0Bcf
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) May 15, 2021

When you combine those two, Davis could be solid at controlling the running game, though base stealers in the minors were successful on 25 of 30 attempts last year. Is that a product of a small sample size, or is there something else at play here? I'm more inclined to lean on the peripherals here over the actual results for now because we're talking about less than half a season's worth of attempts, and he has the tools to throw out runners.

If an automatic balls and strikes system was implemented in 2024, then he would have an easier path to catching in 2024. That's not happening yet. Instead, the receiving and framing is still a big question mark. I'll refer you back to the Comadena article for more on that.

As for right field, he has a great arm, but it didn't translate into results. Going by Baseball Savant's arm runs -- or how often a runner tries to advance and how successful they are -- Davis broke even with zero fielder runs.

Davis' biggest problem is his routes and knowing where he should deliver his throws. That can come with reps. But if he's playing right field because of his arm, it didn't result in extra outs or runners being held. Because while he had a couple absolute gems, like this game-saver against the Phillies in July...

Alternate angle of Henry Davis' insane throw in the top of the 10th pic.twitter.com/Je59XqRTTG
— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) July 30, 2023

... There were times when Davis would make an ill-advised throw to the bag instead of a cutoff man. In this reporter's opinion, there were times where he tried to do too much, and an offline throw could flirt with disaster. It's easy to understand the temptation of trying to do too much to make up for minor mistakes at a position you are still figuring out, but that can snowball fast.

He needs those throwing runs, because he isn't going to get a lot of defensive value in right field elsewhere. He's quick enough to play the position and his jumps on fly balls were actually not too bad considering he was learning on the job, but the routes he would take were not always direct and he had difficulties at the wall. That's pretty normal for a rookie at a new position.

Davis finished last year with -3 Outs Above Average on balls he had to backtrack on and -3 OAA on balls he had to come in on, according to Baseball Savant. There are two schools of thought here: Either play him back a little deeper to try to cut down on those doubles (his 297 foot average depth was deeper than most right fielders, but Smith-Njigba played it even further back at 305 feet, so he could take a few more steps back), or play shallower and hope the arm can play up. Is it better to compensate for a weakness or try to build on a potential strength? There's no clear answer.

Had right field been his sole focus last year, I believe he would have shown more improvement in the outfield. But when he's dedicating multiple practices each week to catching, how much can he improve in the outfield? Better yet, can they do that again in 2024 if he isn't catching semi-regularly? Can the team afford to stall the development of him at one position with the hopes that he can click at another?

The best case scenario for Davis is he takes advantage of the winter and the catcher competition this spring and earns legitimate playing time there. It may cause some lineup juggling, but the best version of himself is probably as a catcher. It's why the Pirates wanted it to be his focus this winter. If it backfires, though, and Rodríguez remains the everyday guy, then it creates a new set a problems for Davis, who is back to where he was last year: Trying to learn a new position in the majors.

It's a gamble, and if it pays off, it serves the team and the player well. If it doesn't go as planned and Davis just doesn't prove he can catch regularly, then some questions may need to be asked.

This article first appeared on DK Pittsburgh Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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